Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points

Fed Chair Powell says more rate cuts could be needed if economy weakens

The Federal Reserve voted to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point for the second time in as many months to cushion the economy against a global slowdown amplified by the U.S.-China trade war. While they left the door open to additional cuts, officials were split over the decision and the outlook for further reductions.

Voting for the today’s 25 basis point cut today were Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, John Williams, Michelle #Bowman, Lael #Brainard, Richard #Clarida, Charles #Evans, and Randal #Quarles. Voting against the action were James #Bullard, who preferred at the meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.5% to 1.75%, and Esther George and Eric Rosengren, who preferred to maintain the target range at 2% to 2.25%.

FOMC Chair Powell votes for rate cut., Stockwinners

The Federal Reserve said in today’s statement, “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports have weakened. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.”

Trade Negotiations

Fed Chair Powell said the Fed has to try to look through near-term volatility due to “complex” trade negotiations to react to the underlying economic situation. Powell said the central bank needs to be careful to not overreact but also to not underreact.

The Fed continues to see a strong labor market and reiterated that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.

Stockwinners.com

There was still a split between solid household spending, but weakening in business fixed investment and exports. Inflation is still running below 2%, while market-based measures of remain low. The Committee continued to appeal to implications of global developments for the economic outlook and low inflation as rationale for the easing.

More from Powell: this is a time of difficult judgments and disparate perspectives. The bulk of the FOMC is taking it meeting-by-meeting. He continues to believe it’s better to be proactive when adjusting policy, and when trouble is seen approaching on the horizon, you should steer away from it if possible. The Fed has repeatedly shifted policy to support the economy, showing the Fed’s willingness to to move based on an evolving risk picture. There’s real uncertainty around the effects of the trade policy. On the funding issues seen this week, Powell said analysts took appropriate actions to address the pressures. If there are additional pressures, analysts have the tools to address the funding pressures and analysts will not hesitate to use them. The Fed will be returning to the question of when to build the balance sheet. The level remains uncertain, however.

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FDA panel approves Aimmune Therapeutics’ peanut allergy treatment

FDA Panel approves peanut allergy treatment, Stockwinners

A Food and Drug Administration panel voted 8-1 in favor of the benefits of Aimmune Therapeutics’ (AIMT) peanut allergy treatment outweigh the risks. The panel also voted 8-1 in favor of the drug’s safety. The body of independent advisers voted 7-2 in favor of effectiveness.

If approved, Palforzia could come with a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy, or REMS. A REMS includes special steps a physician must take when prescribing a medication to limit serious side effects.

Side effects are key when it comes to Palforzia. In a key study, 11.6% of patients who received the peanut allergy treatment dropped out due to side effects vs. 2.4% of patients who took a placebo. Further, Palforzia patients needed emergency allergy shots more frequently.

Peanut allergy is expected to be a $3.9B market by 2027, Stockwinners

The advisory committee vote is not binding, but is a recommendation to the full FDA.

Peanut allergies are the leading cause of death from food-induced allergic reactions in the United States but a lack of approved preventive treatments has left patients and caregivers desperate for options.

Palforzia, previously known as AR101, is an oral immunotherapy consisting of fixed doses of powdered peanut that is sprinkled over food daily.

While it does not aim to cure peanut allergy, the treatment’s clinical trials have shown that patients consuming small doses of the substance to which they are allergic become desensitized over time, reducing the likelihood or severity of a reaction to it.

Stockwinners.com

If approved, Palforzia is expected to have a black box warning, the FDA’s harshest, and strict restrictions requiring the therapy to be administered in a certified facility.

Aimmune expects to win approval for use of Palforzia in patients aged 4 to 17 and said it is considering a list price range of between $3,000 and $20,000 a year.

Analyst Comments

Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Raymond kept an Overweight rating and $60 price target on Aimmune after an FDA’s Allergenic Products Advisory Committee, or APAC, voted in favor of the company’s AR101 peanut allergy drug on both efficacy and safety.

The analyst said, after the vote, he “increasingly likes the chances for Palforzia approval by late January 2020 (if not sooner).” Raymond noted that the stock is likely to open sharply higher on Monday as there is a 30% short interest in Aimmune, and said he is a buyer on the open as he sees “a lot of room to go.”

AIMT last traded at $24.67.

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Assurance IQ sold for $2.35 billion

Prudential acquires Assurance IQ for $2.35B plus additional earnout up to $1.5B

Prudential Financial (PRU) announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Assurance IQ, “a profitable, fast-growing direct-to-consumer platform that transforms the buying experience for individuals seeking personalized health and financial wellness solutions.”

Prudential Financial (PRU) announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Assurance IQ, "a profitable, fast-growing direct-to-consumer platform that transforms the buying experience for individuals seeking personalized health and financial wellness solutions."
Prudential pays $2.35 B for Assurance. Stockwinners

Terms of the acquisition include a total upfront consideration of $2.35 billion, plus an additional earnout of up to $1.15 billion in cash and equity, contingent upon Assurance achieving multi-year growth objectives.

Under the terms of the agreement, Assurance will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Prudential under the U.S. Businesses division.

Prudential buys Assurance IQ for $2.5B, Stockwinners

Assurance co-founders Michael Rowell and Michael Paulus will continue to focus on the growth of Assurance.

Rowell will remain CEO of Assurance and report to Andrew Sullivan, who will assume the role of executive vice president and head of U.S. Businesses as of December 1.

Paulus will remain president of Assurance.

The acquisition is expected to be modestly accretive to EPS and ROE starting in 2020.

In addition to enhancing the growth of Prudential’s financial wellness businesses, the acquisition is expected to generate cost savings of $50 million to $100 million, in addition to the $500 million of expected margin expansion by 2022 discussed at Prudential’s June Investor Day.

Prudential plans to use a combination of its current cash, debt financing and equity to fund the acquisition, which is expected to close early in the fourth quarter of 2019. Prudential’s Board of Directors unanimously approved the transaction.

Prudential’s Board of Directors has authorized a $500 million increase to its share repurchase authorization for calendar year 2019.

As a result, the share repurchase authorization for the full year 2019 is $2.5 billion.

As of June 30, Prudential had repurchased $1.0 billion of shares of its common stock under this authorization.

Prudential expects to fully utilize this increased share repurchase authorization by the end of 2019.

PRU +$2.21 to $81.85

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Toronto’s WSP Global buys Ecology & Environment

Ecology & Environment to be acquired by WSP Global for $65.1M

Ecology and Environment announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement with WSP Global, pursuant to which WSP will acquire E & E for cash.

EEI sold for $65.1M, Stockwinners

E & E has approximately 775 employees, predominantly in offices across the United States, with an additional presence in Latin America. With its US operations representing approximately 80% of its 2018 $US 73.5 million in net revenues, E & E’s portfolio includes work on the New York State Offshore Wind Master Plan, Climate Change Adaptation Planning in San Mateo County, California, and work on large federal programs with agencies including the US Environmental Protection Agency, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the US Navy.

Under the terms of the agreement, E & E’s shareholders will receive $15.00 in cash, and a special dividend of up to 50c, for each share of Class A and Class B common stock they own. The special dividend is conditioned on and will be paid following the completion of the transaction and is subject to downward adjustment in certain circumstances.

WSP buys EEI for $65.1 M.

Under the terms of the Agreement, the merger consideration is approximately $US65.1 million in the aggregate, including a special dividend of approximately $US 2.2 million.

The merger agreement and the transaction have been unanimously approved by E & E’s Board of Directors.

In addition, E & E’s founders Frank Silvestro, Ronald Frank and Gerald Strobel, a trust affiliated with E & E’s late founder Gerhard Neumaier, each member of E & E’s Board of Directors and affiliates of Mill Road Capital have all signed voting agreements in support of the transaction.

The merger consideration, together with the special dividend of up to 50c, represents a premium of approximately 52.9% over E & E’s closing share price of $10.14 on August 27, 2019.

The merger agreement provides for a “go-shop” period of 30 days, during which E & E – with the assistance of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated – will contact and potentially enter into negotiations with, and provide due diligence access to, third parties that offer potentially superior proposals to the proposed transaction with WSP.

E & E will have the right to terminate the merger agreement to enter into a superior proposal subject to the conditions and procedures specified in the merger agreement.

There can be no assurance this process will result in a superior proposal. E & E does not intend to disclose developments about this process unless and until the Board has made a decision with respect to any potential superior proposal.

The closing of the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the approval of E & E’s shareholders and applicable regulatory approvals.

The parties are targeting a closing in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2019, subject to receipt of applicable regulatory approvals.

Alexandre L’Heureux, President and Chief Executive Officer of WSP, said, “We are pleased by the opportunity to have E & E join WSP, as we share a similar culture and strategy, centered around employees and clients. This Acquisition, which is in line with our 2019-2021 Global Strategic Plan, will enable us to increase both our Strategic Advisory Services offering and our presence in the United States, most particularly the US governmental sector. E & E, which is recognized for its expertise in environment, has built experience in sectors and services that WSP had targeted for growth, including environmental impact assessment, emergency planning and management, as well as site restoration.”

EEI is up $5.05 to $15.05.

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Celgene sells its Otezla to Amgen for $13.4 billion

Amgen to acquire Otezla from Celgene for $13.4B in cash

Amgen (AMGN) announced that it has entered into an agreement with Celgene (CELG) in connection with its previously announced merger with Bristol-Myers (BMY) to acquire worldwide rights to Otezla, “the only oral, non-biologic treatment for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis,” and certain related assets and liabilities, for $13.4B in cash, or approximately $11.2B, net of the present value of $2.2B in anticipated future cash tax benefits.

Bristol Meyers Comments on Celgene purchase, Stockwinners
Celgene sells Otezla to pave the way for its merger with Bristol-Meyers, Stockwinners

Otezla (apremilast) is a prescription medicine approved for the treatment of patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis for whom phototherapy or systemic therapy is appropriate. Otezla is a prescription medicine approved for the treatment of adult patients with active psoriatic arthritis. Otezla is a prescription medicine approved for the treatment of adult patients with oral ulcers associated with Behçet’s Disease.

Amgen goes shopping, Stockwinners

Amgen believes that the acquisition of Otezla offers many benefits including: A strong strategic fit with Amgen’s long-standing expertise in psoriasis and inflammation; A differentiated, oral therapy complementary to Amgen’s existing inflammation franchise of innovative biologics and biosimilar products; At least low double-digit Otezla sales growth, on average, over the next five years; Acceleration of Amgen’s near- and long-term revenue growth; Immediate non-GAAP EPS accretion; Intellectual Property exclusivity through at least 2028 in the U.S.; Worldwide rights which fit well with Amgen’s international presence and global expansion objectives; Support of increased R&D investment in 2020 to advance Amgen’s innovative pipeline of first-in-class molecules; No interruption in deployment of Amgen’s capital allocation priorities. Sales of Otezla in 2018 were $1.6B driven by strong volume growth.

Bristol-Myers treatment for colorectal cancer approved, Stockwinners
Bristol-Myers is in the process of buying Celgene, Stockwinners

The closing of the acquisition is contingent on Bristol-Myers entering into a consent decree with the Federal Trade Commission in connection with the pending Celgene merger, the closing of the pending merger with Celgene and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions.

The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2019.

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CBS and Viacom to merge

CBS, Viacom to combine in all-stock merger to create ViacomCBS

CBS Corp. (CBS) and Viacom (VIA, VIAB) announced they have entered into a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger, creating a combined company with more than $28B in revenue.

The combined company, ViacomCBS, “will be a leading global, multiplatform, premium content company, with the assets, capabilities and scale to be one of the most important content producers and providers in the world,” the companies stated.

Viacom, an acronym of Video & Audio Communications to merge with CBS, Stockwinners

Bob Bakish, President and CEO, Viacom, will become President and Chief Executive Officer of the combined company.

Joe Ianniello, President and Acting CEO, CBS, will become Chairman and CEO of CBS and will oversee all CBS-branded assets in his new role.

CBS to merge with Viacom to compete with Disney, Netflix, Stockwinners

The merger agreement was approved by the boards of directors of both CBS and Viacom by unanimous vote of those present, upon the unanimous recommendations of the Special Committees of the CBS and Viacom Boards of Directors, respectively.

Existing CBS shareholders will own approximately 61% of the combined company and existing Viacom shareholders will own approximately 39% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis.

Under the terms of the merger agreement, each Viacom Class A voting share and Viacom Class B non-voting share will convert into 0.59625 of a Class A voting share and Class B non-voting share of CBS, respectively.

NAI, which holds approximately 78.9% and 79.8% of the Class A voting shares of CBS and Viacom, respectively, has agreed to deliver consents sufficient to assure approval of the transaction.

More than two-thirds of the CBS directors unaffiliated with NAI, and all of those unaffiliated directors who voted on the transaction, have approved the transaction, as required in order to permit NAI to consent to the transaction under the terms of the 2018 settlement agreement entered into among CBS, NAI and certain other parties thereto.

The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions. It is expected to close by the 2019 calendar year end.

Sumner Redstone is the majority owner and chairman of the board of the National Amusements (NAI) theater chain. Through National Amusements, Redstone and his family are majority voting shareholders of CBS Corporation and Viacom (itself the parent company of Viacom Media Networks, BET Networks, and the film studio Paramount Pictures). Redstone was formerly the executive chairman of both CBS and Viacom. 

ANALYST COMMENTS

Bernstein

Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger downgraded CBS (CBS) to Underperform from Market Perform following the company’s confirmation earlier of a deal to combine in an all-stock merger with Viacom (VIAB). Any synergies produced “will pale in comparison” to inheriting Viacom’s structural problems, Juenger tells investors.

Imperial Capital

 Imperial Capital analyst David Miller lowered his price target for CBS (CBS) to $62 from $72. The analyst says that while this is generally consistent with where both names had been trading for the last 90 days, the ratio is below what he had been hoping for from the Viacom side, which was a ratio of 0.7. Nonetheless, Miller keeps an Outperform rating on shares of CBS.

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Wesco Aircraft sold for $1.9 billion

Wesco Aircraft to be acquired by Platinum Equity affiliate for $1.9B

Wesco Aircraft sold to Carlyle Group affiliate, Stockwinners

Wesco Aircraft Holdings (WAIR) announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Platinum Equity in a transaction valued at approximately $1.9B.

Upon closing, Wesco will be combined with Platinum Equity portfolio company Pattonair, a provider of supply chain management services for the aerospace and defense industries based in the United Kingdom.

Under the agreement, which has been unanimously approved by Wesco’s Board of Directors, Wesco shareholders would receive $11.05 per share in cash.

The cash purchase price represents a premium of approximately 27.5 percent to the 90-day volume weighted average share price for the period ended May 24, 2019, the last trading day prior to media speculation regarding a potential transaction involving Wesco Aircraft.

Wesco’s three largest shareholders, affiliates of The Carlyle Group (CG) and Makaira Partners, as well as the Snyder Family Trusts, support the transaction and have entered into voting and support agreements to vote their shares in favor of the transaction.

CG to buy Wesco Aircraft, Stockwinners

The transaction will be financed through a combination of committed equity financing provided by affiliates of Platinum Equity Capital Partners IV, L.P., as well as debt financing that has been committed to by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of calendar 2019 and is subject to Wesco shareholder approval, regulatory clearances and other customary closing conditions.

Upon the completion of the transaction, Wesco will become a privately held company, and shares of its common stock no longer will be listed on any public market.

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Cambrex sold for $2.4 billion

Cambrex to be acquired by Permira Funds for $60.00 per share in cash, or $2.4B

Cambrex sold for $2.4 billion, Stockwinners

Cambrex (CBM) announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of the Permira funds in a transaction valued at approximately $2.4B, including Cambrex’s net debt.

Under the terms of the merger agreement, Cambrex shareholders will receive $60.00 in cash for each share of Cambrex common stock, which represents a 47.1% premium to the August 6 closing stock price and a 37.3% premium to the 60-day volume weighted average closing price leading up to this announcement.

Completion of the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of approval by Cambrex’s shareholders and customary regulatory approvals. Closing is expected to occur during the fourth quarter.

Permira goes shopping, Stockwinners

The transaction will be financed through a combination of debt and equity financing.

Cambrex Corporation provides various products and services for the development and commercialization of new and generic therapeutics worldwide. Its products comprise active pharmaceutical ingredients and pharmaceutical intermediates that are used in the production of prescription and over-the-counter drug products, as well as finished dosage forms.

The company serves generic drug companies; and companies that discover and commercialize small molecule human therapeutics. The company sells its products directly, as well as through independent agents. 

Cambrex announced that it will not hold a second quarter 2019 earnings conference call and will not update previously provided financial guidance given the pending acquisition.

The Permira investment team advises the Permira Funds. The investment team identifies long-term macro trends to back, across five key sectors including healthcare. Healthcare is one of the World’s largest industries, spanning hundreds of sub-sectors (e.g., from Biotechnology to Heavy Medical Equipment, from Hospitals to Veterinary medicine). It has the potential to create significant value for its customers through improving the human experience but its costs are also potentially limitless. The sector’s fundamental trends and complexity along with its scale generate attractive investment opportunities.

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Feds Cut Rates on All Instruments!

Federal Reserve cuts federal funds target rate by 25 basis points

The Federal Reserve said in today’s statement, “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.

Powell, FOMC Chair, Stockwinners
Fed Chief Powell. Stockwinners.com

Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft.

On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.

In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain.

As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

Long Term Rates

The Federal Reserve also said in today’s statement, “In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.

This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.”

Bernanke came up with “Quantitative Easing” in 2008, Stockwinners

If you have no idea what the above paragraph means, this may help. Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke, then the Fed Chair, came up with a clever idea! Since the rates at the time where near zero. He needed a way to lower the rates, he started buying long term government bonds. The added demand for bonds caused bond prices to rise thus pushing the rates lower. In the past few quarters, the Feds have been selling these bonds, pushing prices lower, thus higher long term rates. Today’s announcement basically says Feds are ending the bond sales two months earlier, long term rates (mortgage prices) will now go lower.

Powell Comments

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the easing was to ensure against downside risks, as he begins his press conference.

He acknowledged the shift in the policy stance since December’s pivot. Fed has seen both positive and negative developments since the June meeting, including a stronger job market, but weaker manufacturing and disappointing foreign growth, while contacts continue to cite ongoing trade uncertainties are giving companies pause.

The Committee has gradually lowered the assessments of growth and that led to the easing today. On whether a 25 bp cut will prop up inflation, he noted one has to look at the Committee’s actions over the year as it’s moved to a more accommodative stance.

The Committee is thinking of today’s action as a mid-cycle adjustment to policy, designed to provide support for the economy, ensure against downside risks, and support inflation. Chair Powell continued to appeal to downside risks and below target inflation as the main threats to the favorable outlook.

He added, the Fed will monitor the evolution of trade uncertainty, which do seem to be having significant effect on the economy. He thinks trade is a new factor that the FOMC will have to assess “in a new way.”

The chair again said it’s not appropriate to just look at the quarter point easing, but rather the evolution of the Fed’s stance from tightening to easing, with the economy picking up since the end of 2018, which suggests monetary policy is working (though he declined to take full credit for the economy’s gains).

10-year yields fall, Stockwinners
Ten year yields approach 2.00 percent, Stockwinners

Market Action

The Fed repeated it will “monitor” incoming information and will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” not really suggesting the path ahead. The long end of the Treasury market is leading the way with the benchmark 10-year 4.4 bps lower to test 2.00, versus 2.023% just ahead of the announcement. The 2-year is down 1.4 bps to 1.83% versus 1.81% earlier. Hence, the curve has flattened to 17 bps from around 20 bps previously.

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Exotic Metals sold for $1.725B

Parker-Hannifin to acquire Exotic Metals for $1.725B in cash

Exotic Metals sold to Parker Hannifin, Stockwinners

Parker Hannifin Corporation (PH) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Exotic Metals Forming Company LLC for $1.725B in cash. When adjusted for approximately $170M of expected tax benefits, the net transaction value is approximately $1.56B.

Parker enters exotic metals business, Stockwinners

The transaction has been approved by the Board of Directors of each company and is subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of applicable regulatory approvals.

Exotic Metals, headquartered in Kent, Washington, is a privately held company founded in 1966 that designs and manufactures innovative and technically demanding, high temperature, high pressure air and exhaust management solutions for aircraft and engines.

Exotic Metals has expected annual sales of approximately $450M and employs 1,600 team members across three locations in the United States.

Exotic Metals has long-term agreements in place across high growth aerospace programs.

Exotic Metals makes the exhaust cone for GE engines, Stockwinners

Parker also expects growth synergies through cross-selling opportunities and leveraging Parker’s strong aftermarket position.

Parker expects to realize approximately $13M in pre-tax run-rate synergies by fiscal year 2023 by combining supplier networks and implementing Win Strategy initiatives. The cumulative cost to achieve these synergies is expected to be approximately $5M.

The transaction is expected to be accretive to Parker’s organic growth, EBITDA margins, EPS and cash flow, after adjusting for one-time costs, and to achieve high single-digit ROIC in year five with continued expansion.

Upon the closing of this transaction, Parker plans to have Exotic Metals operate as a standalone division within Parker’s Aerospace Group, which is led by Roger Sherrard, Vice President and President Aerospace Group.

Exotic Metals manufactures the intake blades for GE engines, Stockwinners

Parker plans to finance the transaction using new debt.

Following the completion of the transaction, Parker expects to maintain a high investment grade credit profile.

The transaction is not expected to impact Parker’s dividend payout target of approximately 30-35% average percent of net income over a five-year period, while maintaining its record of annual dividend increases.

The transaction is expected to be completed within the next two to three months and is subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of applicable regulatory approvals.

PH last traded at $172.46, down $2.45.

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Tesla crashes after latest report

Model Y to become available in the U.S. in Fall 2020

Model 3 to become available in China in Fall 2020

Tesla (TSLA) shares are sharply lower in Thursday’s trading after the electric car maker posted a loss that surprised investors.

Tesla (TSLA) reported a 2nd Quarter June 2019 loss of $1.12 per share on revenue of $6.3 billion. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.52 per share on revenue of $6.4 billion. Revenue grew 58.7% on a year-over-year basis.

https://stockwinners.com/blog/
Tesla shares tumble following its results, Stockwinners

The company said in it continues to expect positive GAAP earnings in the third quarter. The current consensus estimate is earnings of $0.27 per share for the quarter ending September 30, 2019. Tesla reported 95,356 vehicle deliveries in Q2 and production of 87,048 vehicles in Q2.

Tesla CEO says Model Y production ramp will be ‘significantly faster’ – Musk cites parts compatibility of the company’s existing models. 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote in the company’s Q2 update letter, “This quarter, we are simplifying our approach to guidance. We are most focused on expanding our manufacturing footprint in new regions, launching new products and continuing to improve the customer experience, while generating and using cash sustainably. Local production and improved utilization of existing factories is essential to be cost competitive in each region.

Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics' Car of the Year
Tesla Model 3 to become available in China, Stockwinners

We remain on track to launch local production of the Model 3 in China by the end of the year and Model Y in Fremont by fall of 2020. We are also accelerating our European Gigafactory efforts and are hoping to finalize a location choice in the coming quarters. We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year. Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding. We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus. Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5B-$2.0B, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods. This estimate includes the development of our main projects, on the timelines referenced, and to expand our Supercharger and service networks.”

TSLA shares are down $36.90 to $228.50

Model Y to become available Fall 2020, Stockwinners

ANALYSTS’ COMMENTS

Barclays

Neither revenues nor earnings were “anywhere near a record” in Tesla’s Q2 results, which “calls into question the growth story,” Barclays analyst Brian Johnson tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes Tesla’s loss in Q2 “should mark the top of the current ‘swing trade.'”

The results should temper bullish expectations for profit leverage, says Johnson, who reiterates an Underweight rating on the shares with a $150 price target.

Canaccord

Canaccord analyst Jed Dorsheimer lowered his price target on Tesla to $350 from $394 following Q2 results that were roughly inline with his expectations.

The analyst said its free cash flow suggests the company has a bit more time to grow into its profitability expectations. Dorsheimer maintained his Buy rating on Tesla shares.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy notes that Tesla posted a Q2 EPS miss. Broadly, while Tesla has maintained its narrative, the analyst expects the stock to be under pressure near-term, as expectations had risen post the Q2 deliveries release earlier this month. Levy reiterates an Underperform rating and $189 price target on the shares as the Q2 results reminded him of the challenges ahead for Tesla in gross margin, especially as it relates to Models S/X. While Tesla has maintained its delivery guidance, he believes the company will be challenged to meet it given challenges to S/X volumes and the phase-out of the U.S. EV tax credit.

Model S interior, Stockwinners

Jefferies

Tesla last night reported a “challenging set of numbers,” although its pre-restructuring loss was in line with consensus estimates and its free cash flow better with a $600M operating inflow, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois tells investors in a research note titled “Q2 Challenging but Still Encouraging.”

Tesla’s vehicle gross margin improved but remains low for sustainable profitability at this stage, adds the analyst. Further, he believes e. JB Straubel moving to an advisory position adds to fears of “executive fatigue.” Houchois keeps a Buy rating on Tesla with a $300 price target.

JMP Securities

JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha lowered his price target on Tesla to $337 after its Q2 results, saying the company’s revenue was “solid” but gross margins disappointed even in the absence of reduced regulatory credits.

The analyst adds that the output of 87K cars was below capacity, which is a positive because of “low utilization” of its Model S and X, but notes that the “fixed-cost asset under-absorption” suggests the company is struggling with reducing Model 3 costs as expected.

Morgan Stanley

Following Tesla’s analyst call, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas shares his key thoughts, including his view that JB Straubel giving up the Chief Technical Officer role “may be the biggest news of the quarter.” It is unclear what motivated the 15-year veteran of the company to give up direct operational responsibility, but, “unfortunately, nobody asked this on the call,” Jonas said.

Elon Musk said that Q4 will be “very strong, but said the first and second quarters of 2020 will be “tough,” noted Jonas, who thinks investors should be ready for more quarter-to-quarter sales volatility heading into 2020. He keeps an Equal Weight rating and $230 price target on Tesla shares.

Model X sales slow down, Stockwinners

Needham

Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill kept his Underperform rating on Tesla after its “significant” loss reported in Q2 along with a “slight” increase in its margins hurt by average selling price reductions across all of its vehicle models. The analyst notes that while the company affirmed its FY19 delivery target and forecast profitability in Q4, he is cautious on that outlook as it would require a “significant snapback” in the second half of the year. Gill sees Tesla remaining challenged by “structurally low margins” and growing competition.

Nomura Instinet

Nomura Instinet analyst Christopher Eberle lowered his price target for Tesla to $270 from $300 following last night’s “mixed” Q2 results. Deliveries exceeded initial expectations meaningfully, but profitability metrics “underwhelmed,” Eberle tells investors in a post-earnings research titled “Spinning Its Wheels.”

The analyst doubts the quarter “will inspire enough confidence to get the stock working.” As such, he keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla.

Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch lowered his price target for Tesla to $356 from $437, noting that while automotive revenue and full company free cash flow beat expectations, full company revenue, gross margin and EPS results were below, driven partially by Model S/X ASP declines.

The analyst believes this dynamic will fuel bearish investors focused on limited demand for Tesla products, but believes bulls will focus on strong volumes, stable Model 3 ASP and better than expected cash flow as the company appears to be getting increasingly efficient with its spending. Rusch has an Outperform rating on the shares.

Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter reiterates an Overweight rating on Tesla following last night’s Q2 results while lowering his price target for the shares to $386 from $396.

Forward looking metrics related to revenue, such as orders and deliveries, are “all trending in the right direction – and that’s probably the most important thing,”

Potter tells investors in a research note. The post-market selloff was driven initially by mix-related concerns, and the resulting pressure on gross margin, but then Tesla’s Chief Technology Officer subsequently resigned on the earnings call, and the selling pressure intensified, explains Potter. He believes today’s pullback provides an entry point into Tesla shares.

Roth Capital

Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin lowered his price target for Tesla to $224 form $238 after the company posted weak Q2 EPS, with automotive margins marking the lowest levels since Q1 of 2018. The analyst reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares.

Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives lowered his price target for Tesla to $220 from $230 to reflect a softer margin profile and pushed out profitability looking ahead. The analyst notes that the company delivered some bad news that will weigh on shares on Thursday as the company significantly missed the Street on the bottom line with “disappointing” gross margins that fundamentally call into question its ability to show sustainable profitability on the heels of lower margin Model 3 units going forward. Ives reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares.

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Tenet to spin off its Conifer Health

Tenet concludes Conifer strategic review, to complete spin-off by end of 2Q21

Tenet Healthcare (THC) announced its intention to pursue a tax-free spin-off of its Conifer business as a separate, independent publicly traded company.

Tenet to spinoff Conifer Health in a tax free transaction, Stockwinners

The company expects to complete the spin-off by the end of the second quarter of 2021.

This announcement is the culmination of the Conifer strategic review process announced in December 2017.

Ronald A. Rittenmeyer, Executive Chairman and CEO, said, “After an extensive review of Conifer’s strategic alternatives, in which we evaluated multiple options for the business while simultaneously driving significant and sustainable improvements in performance, we are pleased to announce plans to spin off Conifer into a separate, publicly traded company.

This decision supports our longstanding objectives to maximize the value of Conifer, build on its strong growth potential and deliver the best outcome for Conifer and for Tenet shareholders.” Rittenmeyer continued, “Conifer has unmatched experience and scale in offering revenue cycle management solutions for healthcare providers and a proven track record of delivering high-touch, high-value services to clients.

Tenet to spin off Conifer Health, Stockwinners

Pursuing a tax-free spin-off is an important step forward in Conifer’s evolution, and we believe the business is well-positioned to capitalize on its growth opportunities as a standalone company.”

Rittenmeyer added, “We were pleased with Tenet’s performance in the second quarter, with Adjusted EBITDA comfortably within our Outlook range and consistent with consensus estimates.

Volume growth strengthened in our hospital business, with increases in both admissions and adjusted admissions. USPI also delivered favorable volume growth and Conifer had another strong quarter.

We remain excited about the future of our healthcare services offerings at our 65 hospitals and approximately 500 outpatient centers which will remain part of the Tenet enterprise.”

The separation process will include a thorough review of the necessary executive leadership changes, Board membership needs and key commercial milestones that Conifer must achieve in order to provide the optimal governance structures and business foundations for a successful public company.

Specific details about these actions and milestones will be made available in due course.

Among other things, the spin-off will be subject to finalization of the entity structure of the spun-off business, assurance that the separation will be tax-free to Tenet’s shareholders for U.S. federal income tax purposes, executing a restructured services agreement between Conifer and Tenet, finalization of Conifer’s capital structure, the effectiveness of appropriate filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, final approval from the Tenet Board of Directors, and other customary conditions.

The spin-off will not require a vote by Tenet shareholders and is supported by Common Spirit which owns a minority interest in Conifer Health Solutions, LLC.

The transaction is being targeted for completion by the end of the second quarter of 2021, but there can be no assurance regarding the timeframe for completing the spin-off, the allocation of assets and liabilities between Tenet and Conifer, or that the spin-off will be completed at all.

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Vail Resorts buys Peak Resorts for $11.00 per share

The deal is valued about $170 million

Peak Resorts (SKIS) announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) pursuant to which Vail Resorts will acquire all outstanding shares of common stock of Peak Resorts for $11.00 per share in cash.

Vail Resorts to buy Peak Resorts, Stockwinners

The transaction represents a 116% premium to Peak Resorts’ closing stock price on July 19, 2019.

The transaction is expected to close in fall 2019 and is subject to certain conditions, including a vote of Peak Resorts shareholders and antitrust clearance.

Vail Resorts buys Peak Resorts, shares jump. Stockwinners

The transaction was approved by the Boards of Directors of both companies. Peak Resorts’ Board of Directors also recommends that the Company’s shareholders approve the transaction.

Moelis & Company LLC is serving as financial advisor to Peak Resorts. Perkins Coie LLP, Sandberg Phoenix & von Gontard P.C. and Armstrong Teasdale LLP are serving as legal counsel to Peak Resorts.

About the Companies

Peak Resorts, Inc. owns, operates, and leases day and overnight drive ski resorts in the United States. Its resorts activities and amenities include skiing, snowboarding, terrain parks, tubing, dining, lodging, equipment rentals and sales, ski and snowboard instruction, golf, zip lines, mountain coasters, mountain biking, hiking, paint ball, and other summer activities. It operates 17 ski resorts primarily located in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest.

Vail Resorts has been on a shopping spree, Stockwinners

Vail Resorts, Inc. operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates 11 mountain resorts, including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge Ski, Keystone, and Beaver Creek resorts in Colorado; Park City resort in Utah; Heavenly Mountain, Northstar, and Kirkwood Mountain resorts in the Lake Tahoe area of California and Nevada; Whistler Blackcomb in Canada; Stowe Mountain resort in Vermont; and Perisher in Australia, as well as 3 urban ski areas, such as Wilmot Mountain in Wisconsin, Afton Alps in Minnesota, and Mount Brighton in Michigan.

Vail Resorts expands its footprint by purchasing Peak Resorts, Stockwinners

Its resorts offer various winter and summer recreational activities. The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand, and other lodging properties; various condominiums located in proximity to the company’s mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services. This segment operates approximately 5,400 owned and managed hotel and condominium units.

The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties in and around the company’s resort communities. 

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Netflix, a battle of bulls and bears!

Netflix lost more than $18 billion in market capitalization in 2 days

Disney loss having minimal impact on Netflix subscribers. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read more
Netflix subscribers grew less than expected. Stockwinners

On Wednesday, Netflix (NFLX) reported 2nd Quarter June 2019 earnings of $0.60 per share on revenue of $4.9 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.56 per share on revenue of $4.9 billion. Revenue grew 26.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said in its shareholders letter it expects third quarter earnings of approximately $1.04 per share on revenue of approximately $5.25 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2019.

Bears vs Bulls, Stockwinners

The company saw its first loss in US subscribers last quarter, and a 2.7 million paid customers added globally, nearly half of what was forecast.

Competition

At the same time, the company is facing a steeper path than ever in the United States. Netflix lost subscribers this quarter for the first time in years, a combination of the price hike and a content loss. As the US market becomes oversaturated with streaming services — with WarnerMedia, Disney, and Apple all launching streaming services — the only way to ensure growth is going outside the United States. Netflix currently has 60 million paying domestic subscribers, and company believes they can get to 90 million, but the risk of market saturation is real, and raises difficult questions for the company’s content strategy.

BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon lowered his price target on Netflix (NFLX) to $440 after its reported shortfall on subscriber addition in Q2, which he expects to “fuel the debate” about the company’s pricing power and the role of new content. Given the sequential decline in its U.S. markets and the approaching launch of Disney+ (DIS), the analyst contends that this may be a “more than just the usual” earnings-miss driven debate. Longer term however, Salmon believes that the company’s revenue trend remains on track, keeping his Outperform rating on the stock and recommending Netflix, Amazon (AMZN), and Disney as a “collective investment” in the global streaming race.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Douglas Mitchelson lowered his price target for Netflix to $440 from $450 after the company posted its worst subscriber miss ever, short by 2.3M net adds, while revenue was in line and EBIT well ahead. The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares.

Disney to end Netflix distribution agreement in 2019. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar for details
Disney ended Netflix distribution agreement this year. See Stockwinners.com

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft views post-earnings selloff in shares of Netflix as a buying opportunity. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the streaming service.

KeyBanc

KeyBanc analyst Andy Hargreaves says that despite soft Q2 results, he believes Netflix retains competitive advantages that should support excellent revenue and profit growth well into the future. The likely decline in the stock price improves the risk/reward, but increased confidence in the potential for upside to his estimates is likely needed for a more positive view of the shares, he contends. Hargreaves reiterates a Sector Weight rating on the shares.

WarnerMedia streaming service hurts Netflix, Stockwinners

JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth to $425 from $450 while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The Q2 net adds miss was meaningful, but the company’s Q2 results are often volatile and this quarter contained a number of moving pieces, Anmuth tells investors in a research note. Netflix’s back half of the year content slate is strong and the company is seeing significantly better trends quarter-to-date, adds the analyst. History suggests that Q2 is a “difficult quarter from which to extrapolate NFLX’s trajectory,” says Anmuth.

Stifel

Stifel analyst Scott Devitt said Netflix shares may be range bound until the company reports Q3 earnings following its miss in Q2 on its domestic and international paid net sub add guidance. He believes management’s explanations for the current quarter miss “appear reasonable,” though Netflix “will have to prove, as it has done many times, that its value proposition remains one of the best,” Devitt tells investors in a post-earnings research note. Following last night’s report, Devitt lowered his price target on Netflix shares to $400 from $425 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter raised his price target for Netflix to $188 from $183, while reiterating an Underperform rating on the shares after the company reported quarterly results. The analyst expects content spending to trigger substantial cash burn for many years, and notwithstanding four Netflix price increases in the last five years, he notes that cash burn continues to grow. Content migration and price hikes could cause a deceleration in subscriber growth, and consistently negative free cash flow makes DCF valuation impossible, he adds.

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Carrizo Oil & Gas sold for $3.2 billion

Callon Petroleum to acquire Carrizo Oil & Gas in all-stock deal valued at $3.2B

Carrizo sold for $3.2 billion, Stockwinners

Callon Petroleum (CPE) and Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) announced that their Boards of Directors have unanimously approved a definitive agreement under which Callon will acquire Carrizo in an all-stock transaction valued at $3.2B.

This highly complementary combination will create a leading oil and gas company with scaled development operations across a portfolio of core oil-weighted assets in both the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale.

Callon Petroleum buys Carrizo for $3.2B, Stockwinners

Under the terms of the agreement, Carrizo shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 2.05 Callon shares for each share of Carrizo common stock they own.

This represents $13.12 per Carrizo share based on Callon’s closing common stock price on July 12 and a premium of 18% to Carrizo’s trailing 60-day volume weighted average price.

Following the close of the transaction, Callon shareholders will own approximately 54% of the combined company, and Carrizo shareholders will own approximately 46%, on a fully diluted basis.

The all-stock transaction is intended to be tax-free to Carrizo shareholders.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors at both Callon and Carrizo.

In addition, each of the Carrizo directors has committed to vote his or her shares in favor of the transaction.

Upon closing, the Board of Directors of the combined company will consist of 11 members, including Callon’s eight current Board members and three to be appointed from the Board of Carrizo.

The combined company will be led by Callon’s executive management team and will remain headquartered in Houston, Texas.

The transaction, which is expected to close during the fourth quarter, is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including the approval of shareholders of both companies.

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